Analyzing the Discourse Around Russo-Ukrainian War in Germany: Understanding Variances in Public Stances

Abstract

In contemporary conflicts, public opinion is shaped not only by traditional media and politics but also by digital interactions. The 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war intensified an ongoing crisis, drawing global attention and public engagement. Social media has played a key role in mediating these responses and revealing real-time public interpretation. This study explores the online discourse surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war on X (formerly Twitter), examining how it shapes and reflects public discourse during the conflict. Focusing on Germany, it analyzes dominant narratives, sentiments, and stances expressed on the platform, while integrating socio-economic indicators–such as unemployment rates, the Social Connectedness Index, and regional demographics–to contextualize regional variations in public attitudes and social dynamics. We employ a Large Language Model for stance detection, sentiment analysis, and topic modeling. We then apply statistical modeling to examine how these public expressions relate to socio-economic conditions and emotional tone. This study shows that public attitudes toward the Russo-Ukrainian war are emotionally complex and evolving. Negative sentiment dominates, but positive engagement around inclusion also appears. Supportive stances are more common than opposition, with a clear shift toward greater support after February 24. Opposition, by contrast, is more cautious and closely tied to socio-economic conditions, emerging more frequently in regions with higher unemployment, lower social connectedness, and smaller populations. The research provides insights into the intersection of digital narratives and offline realities, offering a nuanced perspective on public discourse and its role in shaping responses to complex international crises.