The effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens

Abstract

Climate scenarios and models predict an increase in temperatures on earth. Also in the Netherlands, changes in precipitation, extreme weather events, and rising sea level can be expected. Such changes have consequences for water availability, as well as water quality and may have important impacts on the risks of infection by pathogens through water that is used for drinking water production and recreation. To determine the consequences of these changes for human health, quantification of these changes in risks is necessary. The aim of this thesis is to quantify and prioritize the effects of climate change on the infection risks for humans due to exposure to water transmitted pathogens in the Netherlands. This thesis partly provided a quantification of the climate change effects on the infection risks of water-transmitted disease. But more important, the main conclusion is that understanding all determinants under current conditions is a prerequisite for predicting future risks. Contributions of this thesis to understanding current risks of infection by water-transmitted disease may be more relevant than the predictions under climate change. The recommendation from this thesis for future climate change derived research is that the value of research on measures to decrease risks under current (extreme) climate conditions may outweigh uncertain scenario predictions to prepare for climate change effects. Climate changes have the potential to worsen parts of the system that are already vulnerable under current climate conditions. Once threats to human health are solved in the present they are automatically solved or at least reduced in the future.