Development of chemical emission scenarios using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Abstract

The widespread use of chemicals has led to significant water quality concerns, and their use is still increasing. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand the possible future trends in chemical emissions to water systems. This paper proposes a general framework for developing emission scenarios for chemicals to water using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on an emission-factor approach. The proposed approach involves three steps: (i) identification of the main drivers of emissions, (ii) quantification of emission factors based on analysis of publicly available data, and (iii) projection of emissions based on projected changes in the drivers and emission factors. The approach was tested in Europe for five chemical groups and on a national scale for five specific chemicals representing pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. The resulting emission scenarios show widely diverging trends of increased emissions by 240% for ibuprofen in SSP3 (regional rivalry) to a 68% decrease for diclofenac in SSP1 (sustainable development) by 2050. While emissions typically decrease in SSP1, they follow the historical trend in SSP2 (middle-of-the-road scenario) and show an increase in the regional rivalry scenario SSP3 for most selected chemicals. Overall, the framework allows understanding of future chemical emissions trends as a function of the socio-economic trends as captured in the SSPs. Our scenarios for chemical emissions can thus be used to model future aqueous emissions to support risk assessment. While the framework can be easily extended to other pharmaceuticals and pesticides, it heavily leans on the availability and quality of historical emission data and a detailed understanding of emission sources for industrial chemicals.