Future technological and economic performance of IGCC and FT production facilities with and without CO2 capture: Combining component based learning curve and bottom-up analysis

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the technological and economic prospects of integrated gasification facilities for power (IGCC) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) liquid production with and without CCS over time. For this purpose, a component based experience curve was constructed and applied to identify the potential performance improvement of integrated gasification facilities. The results of the experience curve were compared with a bottom-up technology analysis conducted in previous work (Meerman et al., 2012). Results indicate that substantial cost reductions and performance improvements are possible, especially for IGCC with CCS. For instance, the costs of electricity production (COE) may decrease from 82 D2008/MWh at present to 50 D2008/MWh in 2050, if solid oxide fuel cells become commercially available (with a constant coal price of 2.25 D2008/GJ). This cost decrease can only be realized if installed IGCC capacity increase to over 600 GWe and installed CCS capacity to over 3000 GWe equivalent. Also IGCC without CCS have considerable learning potential, with COE projected to decrease from the current 60 to 40 D2008/MWh in the long term. Furthermore, the COE of IGCC without CCS could be competitive with the current market price in the short term. Initial support is, however, needed to realize the first 20 GWe. Currently, coal-based FT-liquids are already competitive at an oil price of 77 D2008/bbl for FT-liquids without CCS and of 83 D2008/bbl with CCS, resulting in CO2 capture costs of only 11 D2008/t CO2. By 2050, production costs of FT-liquids could drop to 9.3 D2008/GJ for FT-liquids without CCS and to 10 D2008/GJ for FT-liquids with CCS. To realize this cost reduction, an installed capacity of about 430 GWth FT is needed. The bottom-up and the component based experience curve analyses gave comparable trends regarding the potential development of efficiency, capital costs and production costs for a scenario with a strong growth in IGCC, FT and CCS capacity. The main advantage of combining the two approaches is that it becomes clear how cost reductions can be achieved, what kind of capacity development and the time frame is required to reach the projected improvements.