Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Publication date
2021-08-28
Authors
Payne, Antony J.
Nowicki, Sophie
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Albrecht, Torsten
Asay-Davis, Xylar
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
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Article
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Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Keywords
Antarctica, Greenland, ice sheet, sea level, Geophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action
Citation
Payne, A J, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouchi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, T J, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, T L, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Galton-Fenzi, B K, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, N R, Gregory, J M, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, M J, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, N C, Kleiner, T, Munneke, P K, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscomb, W H, Little, C M, Lowry, D P, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, S F, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Rückamp, M, Schlegel, N J, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, R S, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, L D, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T & Zwinger, T 2021, 'Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 16, e2020GL091741, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741