Thresholds models of technological transitions

Abstract

We present a systematic review of seven threshold models of technological transitions from physics, biology, economics and sociology. The very same phenomenon of a technological transition can be explained by very different logics, ranging from economic explanations based on price, performance and increasing returns to alternative explanations based on word-of-mouth recommendation, convergence of expectations, or social mimicking behaviour. Our review serves as a menu for future modelling exercises that can take one or more elementary transition models as a basis, and extend these model to fit more specific sectoral, technological or territorial contexts.