Surging scientific capabilities in cities worldwide after significant earthquakes

Abstract

Natural disasters trigger complex social chain interactions. While scholars have largely assessed their impacts on society, much less is known about how such catastrophes contribute to the development of scientific capabilities. Here, we analyze 314,753 earthquake-related scholarly documents together with metadata on 1099 significant seismic events worldwide between 1980 and 2024 to examine how earthquakes influence the entry of new scientific capabilities into the portfolios of cities and countries. We find that major earthquakes can reconfigure research trajectories in cities near epicenters and stimulate activity across a broader range of scientific domains, irrespective of prior scientific capabilities. This diversification spans both related fields (e.g., geosciences and civil engineering) and unrelated fields (e.g., psychology and economics), particularly in the aftermath of the largest and most destructive events. The odds of entering new fields at the city level are associated with factors such as the number of people affected, historical exposure to earthquakes, and pre-existing scientific capabilities. These findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging geographic and institutional resilience to foster scientific diversification in disaster-prone regions, offering policymakers valuable insights into smart specialization strategies for risk mitigation and long-term knowledge development.