Huishoudensontwikkeling en inkomensverandering : een longitudinale analyse van de wisselwerking tussen het inkomen en huishoudensdemografische kenmerken

Abstract

This study started by wondering how income restrictions affect the transitions in household demographic positions, what the impact is of these transitions on the prosperity at microlevel, and what is the long term feasibility, of the target of a stable income development. The empirical research, based on longitudinal data from the CBS Income Panel Study in the Netherlands, resulted in a clear insight into the mutual relationship between demographic events in the course of life on the one hand and changes in the amount and composition of the income at microlevel on the other hand. In regard to the beginning of the course of life, the research questions focused on the mutual link between the income of young people and leaving the parental home, on selection of partners by income, and on the interaction between the transition into motherhood and the dynamics in personal income of women. In regard to the elderly, this study evaluates the contrast between the short-term stability, which is a basic element of the social security system in the Netherlands, and the income development in the long run. The empirical analysis describes the dynamics in the various income components of the elderly, such as the income from the state pension scheme (AOW), supplementary pensions and income from assets.

The theoretical chapter contains an inventory of the different points of view that explain the role of income and labour participation in decisions on demographic events, and the impact on individual income. There are various expectations concerning the effect of income on the timing of events in the course of life. These stem from a micro-economic approach, a socio-cultural approach and the social security arrangements in the Netherlands. The different points of view have been incorporated into partly supplementary and partly competitive hypotheses about the impact of income on events like leaving the parental home, having a first child, and the impact of these events on the labour participation and income level.

From the age of 50, labour participation decreases gradually with the climbing of the years. Despite the formal retirement age of 65, the actual variation in the retirement age is high. The different suppositions on the impact of personal and contextual features have been taken into account of the empirical tests.

With respect to the income development at old age, the expectations are based on the targets in the pension schemes and the income policy of the government. Does an early exit from the labour market result in the same income consequences as a late exit? Can we correctly use rules of thumb, like a replacement rate of 70 or 80 percent after leaving the labour market? Do later generations have a more favourable income position than earlier generations, as regards to a lower dependency on the state pension (AOW), and higher indexation of current pensions? To answer questions such as these, the income development at the individual level has been studied by doing longitudinal analyses.