Expert elicitation on uncertainty, climate change and human health

Abstract

Climate change may have a range of diverse effects on human health, ranging from increased heat-related disease and mortality to effects on vector-borne diseases and allergic disorders such as hay fever. Assessments for the Netherlands have indicated a number of effects that are considered relevant for the country, but indicate many knowledge gaps and uncertainties and note that quantification of impacts is difficult (MNP, 2006; Huynen et al., 2008). This makes it complicated to decide whether - and if so how much - adaptation to these various impacts is needed. Dessai and van der Sluijs (2007) assess that there are large differences in the level of uncertainty that various adaptation approaches can accommodate. Some approaches require detailed knowledge, while others function well in the face of ignorance (but may have other tradeoffs). Therefore, decision-making on these issues requires a good understanding of the state of knowledge and the associated uncertainties, in order to develop adaptation strategies that are fit for function. This study assesses the degree of uncertainty for the health effects of climate change in the Netherlands, and the policy implications of this uncertainty, by means of an in-depth expert elicitation.