Synergy of air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese industries: A critical assessment of energy models

Abstract

In China, industrial energy use accounts for two thirds of total energy consumption, and this is expected to remain the same in the medium and long-term. China has embarked on a path towards more sustainable energy use to meet domestic (e.g. air quality) and global needs (e.g. climate change), and to sustain its economic welfare. However, most energy-economy models for China have shown limitations to evaluate policy instruments and technology diffusion in industries, in relation to the multiple policy goals. In this paper, the advantages and weaknesses of 19 current energy models for China are evaluated, including important co-benefits as reduced air pollutant emissions. Results show that the co-benefits of energy use and emission policies are rarely modeled on industrial level. Based on the critical assessment of the state-of-the-art energy models, we develop recommendations for modeling industrial energy use, with an emphasis on improved incorporation of (economic, environmental and energy) policy effects, technology representation, co-benefit modeling, and uncertainty analysis.