The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope
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Publication date
2017-08
Authors
Gomes, Guilherme J.C.
Vrugt, Jasper A.
Vargas, Eurípedes A.
Camargo, Julia T.
Velloso, Raquel Q.
van Genuchten, Martinus Theodorus
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Document Type
Article
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Abstract
We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.
Keywords
Bedrock depth, Hydraulic parameters, Limit analysis, Safety factor, Slope stability, Unsaturated flow, Taverne, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Computer Science Applications
Citation
Gomes, G J C, Vrugt, J A, Vargas, E A, Camargo, J T, Velloso, R Q & van Genuchten, M T 2017, 'The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope', Computers and Geotechnics, vol. 88, pp. 222-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016