Does postoperative plasma IL-6 improve early prediction of infection after pulmonary cancer surgery?: A two-centre prospective study

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative hyperinflammation increases infection risk. We hypothesized that interleukin-6 (IL-6) is an early predictor of infection after pulmonary cancer surgery. METHODS: A two-centre prospective cohort study, including consecutive elective pulmonary cancer surgery patients. The primary outcome was any postoperative infection within 30 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create a core model (age, sex, surgery duration and Charlson comorbidity index) to which maximum IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) concentrations and white blood cell count (WBC) between start of anaesthesia and 24 hours were added. The predictive performance of the models was assessed. RESULTS: 170 patients were analysed, of whom 38 (22%) developed a postoperative infection. IL-6 concentrations peaked 6 hours postoperatively, whereas CRP had not yet reached peak levels at 24 hours (time of prediction). Maximum IL-6 concentrations were associated with postoperative infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.04 per 10 pg/ml, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.09, p = 0.047) as was CRP (aOR 1.01 per mg/L, 1.00-1.03, p = 0.032). WBC and PCT were not associated with postoperative infection. The c-statistic of the prediction models that included IL-6 or CRP concentrations were 0.67 (95%CI: 0.56-0.77) and 0.68 (0.57-0.77), respectively, compared to 0.67 (0.56-0.76) for the core model. IL-6 and CRP slightly improved calibration by broadening the range of predicted probabilities. Reclassification did not improve. CONCLUSION: Plasma IL-6 and CRP levels observed within 24 hours from the start of surgery are associated with postoperative infection risk, yet the added value of these biomarkers to a simple clinical prediction model seems limited.