Firm wind and solar photovoltaic power with proactive curtailment: A European analysis

Abstract

The rapid deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) is essential to meet global decarbonization targets, necessitating a shift from marginal to primary electricity generation resources. This study analyzes if and how the power of intermittent renewable energy sources can be transformed into firm power, which can power Europe around the clock and throughout the year. It focuses on the relationship between overbuilding intermittent renewables and storage. We develop the Pan-European Intermittent Renewable Overbuilding & Curtailment Optimization Model (PEIROCOM) to assess the cost implications of various technology mixes. These include solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, battery storage, electrolysis, hydropower, and nuclear energy. The results indicate that overbuilding and curtailment of renewables significantly lower system costs. However, incorporating dispatchable resources like hydrogen gas turbines and demand response mechanisms further lowers costs and improves grid stability. The optimal firm kWh premium was achieved with minimal curtailment when green hydrogen was utilized for seasonal storage and demand response. We demonstrate that almost all electricity demand can be met directly by solar PV and wind power, with only a small fraction requiring dispatchable generation from hydrogen turbines. The study highlights the economic feasibility and robustness of an IRES-dominated grid. These findings underscore the importance of strategic overbuilding, curtailment, and the integration of flexible, low-capital cost generators in achieving a fully decarbonized and resilient European electricity grid.