Operationalizing just transition: A data-driven framework for assessing household vulnerability to climate change and the green transition

Abstract

This paper develops a data-driven framework to assess distributive justice in the context of climate change impacts and the green transition. The dual challenge of global warming and decarbonization profoundly affects household well-being, often amplifying existing socio-economic inequalities. Climate change impacts, such as extreme weather events and policy-driven energy price increases, expose households to varying levels of risk depending on their financial and human capital, housing conditions, geographic location, and other factors. These disparities challenge the equity and political stability of the green transition, necessitating a framework for operationalizing the concept of a just transition that is both evidence-based and informed by principles of justice. Building on the framework introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we define vulnerability as the interaction of a household’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to transition-induced changes. We then quantify vulnerability in terms of its incidence, intensity and inequality among households. We illustrate this framework by applying it to administrative microdata covering 88 percent of Dutch households, mapping vulnerability across three domains: energy, mobility, and the physical environment. To demonstrate its policy relevance, we simulate the allocation of a hypothetical government fund to combat vulnerability under alternative distributive justice principles. The results reveal trade-offs between reducing the number of vulnerable households, mitigating severe vulnerability, and lowering inequality within vulnerable groups. By aligning household-level data with normative principles of justice, this study advances the integration of ethical and empirical analysis, providing a transparent, operational tool to support just and inclusive sustainability transitions.