Random forests-based error-correction of streamflow from a large-scale hydrological model: Using model state variables to estimate error terms

Abstract

To improve streamflow predictions, researchers have implemented updating procedures that correct predictions from a simulation model using machine learning methods, in which simulated streamflow and meteorological data are used as predictors. Few studies however have included an extensive set of meteorological and hydrological state variables simulated by the simulation model. We developed and evaluated a Random Forests (RF)-based approach to correct predictions from a global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. From PCR-GLOBWB, meteorological input as well as its simulated hydrological state variables were used as predictors in the RF to estimate errors of PCR-GLOBWB streamflow predictions, which were then applied to correct simulated hydrograph. The RF was trained and applied separately at three streamflow gauging stations in the Rhine basin with different physiographic characteristics. Daily streamflow simulations from an uncalibrated PCR-GLOBWB run were improved by applying the RF-based error-correction model (KGE improved from 0.37 to 0.62 to 0.76–0.89, NSE from 0.19 to 0.39 to 0.64–0.80). A similar improvement was found in the simulations from a calibrated PCR-GLOBWB run (KGE 0.72–0.87 and NSE 0.60–0.78). The PCR-GLOBWB state variables that are informative to the improvement differed between catchments. Variables related to groundwater are informative in catchments dominated by the sedimentary basins characterizing large aquifers, while snow cover and surface water state variables are informative in a nival regime with large lakes. Here we quantified the improvement from combining a process-based and machine learning approach.