Modelling climate change for adaptation assessments

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing global problems of our time. Two major responses have emerged to deal with this issue: mitigation and adaptation. Climate impact assessment is one of a family of interdisciplinary studies that focus on the interaction between nature and society, drawing theory, methods and tools from the biophysical, social-behavioural and engineering sciences. This chapter reviews the various stages involved in the modelling of climate change impacts for adaptation assessments from emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) to local impacts (e.g., on hydrology) with a particular focus on uncertainty quantification and management. It is important to note that adaptation to climate change does not happen in isolation — there are multiple stresses and stimuli occurring at the same time as climatic stimuli, which are the main focus of the chapter.