Imagining a hydrogen economy: From grand technological utopia to enabler of the energy transition in three waves since the 1970s

Abstract

Conceptions of a future hydrogen economy have undergone a significant evolution over the past 50+ years. This study identifies three distinct ‘Waves’, or periods of high expectations for a hydrogen economy. The First and Second Waves were followed by declining optimism; the Third Wave is ongoing today. The three Waves are analyzed through a multi-method literature review, and we specifically analyze the First Wave through key historical sources and contextual analysis. We argue that the hydrogen economy emerged in the 1970s as a techno-utopian narrative within the scientific community, where hydrogen was envisioned as the ultimate energy carrier, driven by nuclear energy. Characteristics of the techno-utopian narrative include utopian terminology, dystopian future images, and neglect of negative side effects. During this period, the hydrogen economy did not develop beyond the conceptual phase. The Second Wave, starting in the mid-1990s, witnessed a resurgence of interest in hydrogen, particularly in the mobility sector. Governmental support and media portrayal fueled public enthusiasm, but practical challenges and misleading information resulted in disillusionment with the hydrogen economy ideal by the late 2000s. Today, in the Third Wave, hydrogen is repositioned as an energy vector for a more sustainable future, primarily as a carrier of (variable) renewable energy sources. Lessons from earlier Waves emphasize the importance of affordable renewable energy for hydrogen production, realistic objectives, a developed hydrogen infrastructure, and cross-sector collaboration. By addressing these elements, the Third Wave can avoid past pitfalls and advance hydrogen’s role in a sustainable energy future.