Predictive Validity of the Washington State Juvenile Court Pre-Screen Assessment in the Netherlands: The Development of a New Scoring System

Abstract

This study examined the predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Pre-Screen Assessment (WSJCA pre-screen) in the Netherlands. Previous research conducted in the United States showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen to be modest, as is the case with the predictive validity of most other risk assessment instruments for juveniles. Therefore, it was also examined whether the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen can be improved by modifying the scoring procedure. The sample consisted of 520 youths who had been referred to the juvenile probation service by court. The present study showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen in the Netherlands to be modest too, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of .625. Modifying the scoring procedure by means of chi-squared automatic interaction detector analyses significantly improved the predictive validity to an AUC of .702. The modified scoring procedure is time-saving because only variables that uniquely contribute to the prediction of recidivism are included, which at the same time leads to a more accurate prediction of recidivism.