Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios
Publication date
2024
Authors
de Bruin, Sophie Pieternel
Schmeier, Susanne
van Beek, L. P. H.
Gulpen, Marijn
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Document Type
Article
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Abstract
This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.
Keywords
ambition pathways, conflict risk, hydropower dams, institutional resilience, scenario projections, Transboundary river basins, Development, Water Science and Technology
Citation
de Bruin, S P, Schmeier, S, van Beek, R & Gulpen, M 2024, 'Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios', International Journal of Water Resources Development, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 7-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650