Locked in transition? Towards a conceptualization of path-dependence lock-ins in the renewable energy landscape

Abstract

In opposition to studies concerning fossil fuel-based energy systems, the transition literature often overlooks how path-dependence lock-ins affect the renewable energy landscape. Investigating this phenomenon is crucial because lock-ins can hamper the ability to keep pace with the evolving energy landscape, potentially hindering the shift from polluting energy systems to more sustainable alternatives. By laying the foundations for the conceptualization of renewable energy lock-ins, this study provides a framework for analyzing their influence on the energy transition process. It offers a literature review that introduces the various risks associated with these lock-ins, as opposed to their potential merits, illustrating them via empirical cases from different countries. The study reveals that lock-ins pose several risks to the renewable energy sector, including neglecting alternative technologies, impeding the promotion of decentralized facilities, limiting innovation, impairing energy justice, endangering the environment, and distorting the economic setting. It further discusses several incentives that may encourage various players to manipulate such lock-ins, including energy production, financial gain, power relationships, and environmental and social incentives. The study concludes by calling for a deeper conceptualization of renewable energy lock-ins while proposing a path for future research in this regard. By examining their impact on the renewable energy landscape, the research underscores the dual nature of lock-ins: they provide stability for the diffusion of renewable energy sources yet potentially reduce the capacity to adapt, change, or deviate from the established trajectory or path.