A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance

Abstract

Validation of prediction models is highly recommended and increasingly common in the literature. A systematic review of validation studies is therefore helpful, with meta-analysis needed to summarise the predictive performance of the model being validated across different settings and populations. This article provides guidance for researchers systematically reviewing and meta-analysing the existing evidence on a specific prediction model, discusses good practice when quantitatively summarising the predictive performance of the model across studies, and provides recommendations for interpreting meta-analysis estimates of model performance. We present key steps of the meta-analysis and illustrate each step in an example review, by summarising the discrimination and calibration performance of the EuroSCORE for predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.