Bayesian networks in medicine: presenting query response uncertainty for decision support

Abstract

Despite their good characteristics, tools based on Bayesian networks are not yet widely used in medical decision support. Meeting the needs of the intended users is crucial for the acceptance of these tools, and clinical involvement in their development is thus required to promote their use. During the development of a Bayesian network-based tool for the prediction of lymph node metastases in patients with endometrial cancer, as one of the users needs a measure of query response uncertainty was put forward. In this paper, we sustain meeting this need by exploring options for the presentation of query response uncertainty. We consider the level of detail, one-sided versus two-sided intervals and two different ’look-ahead’ options. The different options are illustrated through a small example network.