Baroclinic flow and the Lorenz-84 model

Abstract

The bifurcation diagram of a truncation to six degrees of freedom of the equations for quasi-geostrophic, baroclinic flow is investigated. Period doubling cascades and Shil'nikov bifurcations lead to chaos in this model. The low dimension of the chaotic attractor suggests the possibility to reduce the model to three degrees of freedom. In a physically comprehensible limit of the parameters this reduction is done explicitly. The bifurcation diagram of the reduced model in this limit is compared to the diagram of the six degrees of freedom model and agrees well. A numerical implementation of the graph transform is used to approximate the three dimensional invariant manifold away from the limit case. If the six dimensional model is reduced to a linearisation of the invariant manifold about the Hadley state, the Lorenz-84 model is found. Its parameters can then be calculated from the physical parameters of the quasi-geostrophic model. Bifurcation diagrams at physical and traditional parameter values are compared and routes to chaos in the Lorenz-84 model are described.