An intercausal cancellation model for Bayesian-network engineering

Abstract

When constructing Bayesian networks with domain experts, network engineers often use the noisy-OR model, and causal interaction models more generally, to alleviate the burden of probability elicitation: the use of such a model serves to reduce the number of probabilities to be elicited on the one hand, and on the other hand forestalls experts having to give assessments for probabilities with compound conditions which they feel are hard to envision. Recently, we have shown that ill-considered use of the noisy-OR model specifically can substantially decrease a network’s performance, especially in domains in which causal mechanisms include cancellation effects. Motivated by this observation, we designed a new causal interaction model, with the same engineering advantages as the noisy-OR model, to describe such effects. We detail properties of our intercausal cancellation model, and compare it against existing causal interaction models. We further illustrate the application of our model in the real-world domain of pharmacology.