Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

Abstract

Scenarios avoiding global warming greater than 1.5 or 2°C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, may require the combined mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions alongside enhancing negative emissions through approaches such as afforestation/reforestation (AR) and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We use the JULES land-surface model coupled to an inverted form of the IMOGEN climate emulator to investigate mitigation scenarios that 20 achieve the 1.5 or 2°C warming targets of the Paris Agreement. Specifically, we characterise the global and regional effectiveness of land-based (BECCS and/or AR) and anthropogenic methane (CH4) emission mitigation, separately and in combination, on the anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission budgets (AFFEBs) to 2100, using consistent data and socioeconomic assumptions from the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The analysis includes the effects of the methane and carbon-climate feedbacks from wetlands and permafrost thaw, which we have shown previously to be significant 25 constraints on the AFFEBs.