Can we predict age at natural menopause using ovarian reserve tests or motherʼs age at menopause? A systematic literature review

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:: This review aimed to appraise data on prediction of age at natural menopause (ANM) based on antimüllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC), and motherʼs ANM to evaluate clinical usefulness and to identify directions for further research. METHODS:: We conducted three systematic reviews of the literature to identify studies of menopause prediction based on AMH, AFC, or motherʼs ANM, corrected for baseline age. RESULTS:: Six studies selected in the search for AMH all consistently demonstrated AMH as being capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 5.6-9.2). The sole study reporting on motherʼs ANM indicated that AMH was capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 9.1-9.3). Two studies provided analyses of AFC and yielded conflicting results, making this marker less strong. CONCLUSIONS:: AMH is currently the most promising marker for ANM prediction. The predictive capacity of motherʼs ANM demonstrated in a single study makes this marker a promising contributor to AMH for menopause prediction. Models, however, do not predict the extremes of menopause age very well and have wide prediction interval. These markers clearly need improvement before they can be used for individual prediction of menopause in the clinical setting. Moreover, potential limitations for such use include variations in AMH assays used and a lack of correction for factors or diseases affecting AMH levels or ANM. Future studies should include women of a broad age range (irrespective of cycle regularity) and should base predictions on repeated AMH measurements. Furthermore, currently unknown candidate predictors need to be identified.