Designing a Spatial Framework to Create Refugia-Probability Maps for Conservation Planning: Applications in the Canary Islands

Abstract

Aim: Identifying climate refugia is a pressing priority for conservation planning under global change, particularly in oceanic archipelagos with high levels of endemicity and topographic complexity. Location: Canary Islands. Methods: Here, we developed a spatial framework to identify and recursively map refugia probability in the Canary Islands across a broad set of indicators, including multivariate climate analogues, topographic complexity, poleward aspect, wetness, and forestry cover. We integrated these into continuous refugia probability maps and assessed their spatial patterns across the islands. Results: Our results reveal clear east–west patterns, with highest refugia potential values concentrated in poleward-oriented, rugged and forested areas in the western part of the archipelago. The additive integration of the different blocks enables the identification of refugia probability. The tree-cover block highlights the role of vegetation and forest patches, promoting refugia. In drier areas, however, topography and poleward-facing aspects become more influential, improving refugia detection on islands with strong environmental contrasts. Critically, many of the most resilient refugia remain outside existing protected areas, especially on biodiversity-rich and heterogeneous islands, highlighting how our approach can help identify areas of high conservation potential. Main Conclusions: Our proposed framework is reproducible, data-efficient, and transferable to other oceanic regions, providing a flexible tool for conservation decisions and adaptive design of Protected Areas systems in vulnerable landscapes. By identifying areas likely to host biodiversity under climate change, our approach supports adaptive conservation planning, protected area expansion, and climate-informed prioritisation for managers.