The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries

Abstract

Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences-a phenomenon known as 'problem-shifting', where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions-especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors-face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for systemwide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problemshifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.