The great settlement theory–why Tunisians fear of being replaced by sub-Saharans?

Abstract

‘There is an ongoing plan to replace the Tunisian population with sub-Saharans,’ Tunisian President Kais Saied declared in February 2023. These remarks—widely compared by international media and analysts to Renaud Camus's ‘Great Replacement Theory’—sparked controversy both domestically and abroad. Western observers and human rights organizations have since argued that the political climate following these statements coincided with a rise in racial tensions and incidents targeting sub-Saharan communities in Tunisia. The president's idea was not new to locals, as it echoed the narrative of the Tunisian National Party, a small anti-immigration group whose claims about a ‘resettlement’ master plan gained traction in mainstream discourse by 2022. Informed by theories on conspiracism, this paper looks at the ‘Great Settlement Theory’ and analyses the country's post-2011 political and social environment to investigate how this theory emerged and how sub-Saharan migrants became a stigmatised ‘outgroup’. Through this lens, the study contributes to a broader understanding of conspiracism and its impact on national identity formation and intergroup relations in Tunisia.