Impact of value-driven scenarios on the geomorphology and ecology of lower Rhine floodplains under a changing climate

Abstract

In the future, the bio-geomorphological functioning of lowland floodplains is likely to be altered at an increasing pace. Together with increasing socio-economic demands, climatic changes are expected to increase the pressures on lowland rivers in developed countries. To cope with these pressures, integrated management plans have been developed for riverine areas across Australia, North America, and Europe (Brierley and Freyirs, 2008; Klijn et al., 2008). The choice and design of the measures proposed in these plans depends on the choices made in the decision making process, which in turn is strongly influenced by the value systems of the stakeholders. Planning of landscaping measures requires a long time horizon - decades to centuries - as the implementation is time-consuming and costly. Planning, therefore, involves scenario analysis to determine the feasibility and effects of potential landscaping measures.