Palaeoflood extremes of the Lower Rhine

Abstract

Assessment of the magnitude of design discharges (floods with an expected recurrence of 1/1250-yr) requires knowledge on the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. The current estimate of the size of the design flood for the Lower Rhine is based on the discharge record of the last 100 years, but it is improbable that its extrapolation is optimal for prediction of the magnitude of extreme events, as larger floods than those in the observational records have not been measured. Reconstructing palaeoflood magnitudes and frequencies from sedimentary records may provide insight in the potential maximum magnitude of extreme Rhine discharges. This helps to improve the determination of the design discharge with a reduced uncertainty, especially for extreme values.