High-resolution Global Pathways to Achieve 100% Electricity Access in 2030

Abstract

Universal access to electricity is a crucial component of achieving the sustainable development goals. However, model projections suggest that under current policies, this goal will not be reached by 2030. There is still little understanding of electrification strategies and investment needs across global regions. To address this gap, we explore scenarios for achieving universal access globally, considering decent living standards and synergies with climate change mitigation. The analysis integrates high-resolution population GIS data with socioeconomic and energy system data from the integrated assessment model IMAGE to analyse the least-cost optimised pathways for universal access by 2030. The results indicate that universal access requires an additional investment of around 19 billion USD annually, with renewable off-grid systems playing a major role. Combining universal access with climate mitigation policies would require 15% more investment but would reduce CO2 emissions by nearly 30% relative to the default electrification scenario.