Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers' perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance

Abstract

Scenarios play a pivotal role in linking climate science to policy action, informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs)1, 2-3. However, policymakers' (PMs) perspectives remain understudied. Here, we surveyed UNFCCC National Focal Points (N = 278/n = 57), assessing the knowledge base of international-national PMs, perceptions of scenarios' policy relevance, and plausible improvements. Results highlight a significant regional knowledge gap, with lower scenario familiarity for PMs representing low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, policymakers request more straightforward scenario communication and more detail. To improve scenario relevance (credibility and legitimacy)4, we recommend more actively disseminating scenario knowledge (enhancing institutional capacity) in the Global South and providing more policy-relevant detail into global scenarios and national extensions (linking scenarios to on-the-ground policy action). This also means reassessing the IPCC's cautiousness concerning being policy-neutral.