Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

Abstract

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number Ro early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of Ro with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent.We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of Ro, and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.