Most likely noise-induced tipping of the overturning circulation in a two-dimensional Boussinesq fluid model

Abstract

There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is in a bistable regime, hence it is relevant to compute pathways of noise-induced transitions between the stable equilibrium states. Here, the most probable transition pathway of a noise-induced tipping of the northern overturning circulation in a spatially-continuous two-dimensional model with surface temperature and stochastic salinity forcings is computed directly using large deviation theory. This pathway reveals the fluid dynamical mechanisms of such a tipping. Paradoxically it starts off with a strengthening of the northern overturning circulation before a short but strong salinity pulse induces a second overturning cell. The increased atmospheric energy input of this two-cell configuration cannot be mixed away quickly enough, leading to the collapse of the northern overturning cell, and finally resulting in a southern overturning circulation. Additionally, the approach allows us to compare the probability of this transition under different parameters in the deterministic part of the salinity surface forcing, which quantifies the increase in transition probability as the bifurcation point of the system is approached.