Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Publication date
2015-08-28
Authors
Anderson, Joanna E.
Aarts, Alexander A.
Anderson, Christopher J.
Attridge, Peter R.
Attwood, Angela
Axt, Jordan
Babel, Molly
Bahník, Štěpán
Baranski, Erica
Barnett-Cowan, Michael
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Advisors
Supervisors
Document Type
Article
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taverne
Abstract
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Keywords
Taverne, General
Citation
Anderson, J E, Aarts, A A, Anderson, C J, Attridge, P R, Attwood, A, Axt, J, Babel, M, Bahník, Š, Baranski, E, Barnett-Cowan, M, Bartmess, E, Beer, J, Bell, R, Bentley, H, Beyan, L, Binion, G, Borsboom, D, Bosch, A, Bosco, F A, Bowman, S D, Brandt, M J, Braswell, E, Brohmer, H, Brown, B T, Brown, K, Brüning, J, Calhoun-Sauls, A, Callahan, S P, Chagnon, E, Chandler, J, Chartier, C R, Cheung, F, Christopherson, C D, Cillessen, L, Clay, R, Cleary, H, Cloud, M D, Conn, M, Cohoon, J, Columbus, S, Cordes, A, Costantini, G, Alvarez, L D C, Cremata, E, Crusius, J, DeCoster, J, DeGaetano, M A, Penna, N D, Den Bezemer, B, Deserno, M K, Devitt, O, Dewitte, L, Dobolyi, D G, Dodson, G T, Donnellan, M B, Donohue, R, Dore, R A, Dorrough, A, Dreber, A, Dugas, M, Dunn, E W, Easey, K, Eboigbe, S, Eggleston, C, Embley, J, Epskamp, S, Errington, T M, Estel, V, Farach, F J, Feather, J, Fedor, A, Fernández-Castilla, B, Fiedler, S, Field, J G, Fitneva, S A, Flagan, T, Forest, A L, Forsell, E, Foster, J D, Frank, M C, Frazier, R S, Fuchs, H, Gable, P, Galak, J, Galliani, E M, Gampa, A, Garcia, S, Gazarian, D, Gilbert, E, Giner-Sorolla, R, Glöckner, A, Goellner, L, Goh, J X, Goldberg, R, Goodbourn, P T, Gordon-McKeon, S, Gorges, B, Gorges, J, Goss, J, Graham, J, Grange, J A, Gray, J, Hartgerink, C, Hartshorne, J, Hasselman, F, Hayes, T, Heikensten, E, Henninger, F, Hodsoll, J, Holubar, T, Hoogendoorn, G, Humphries, D J, Hung, C O Y, Immelman, N, Irsik, V C, Jahn, G, Jäkel, F, Jekel, M, Johannesson, M, Johnson, L G, Johnson, D J, Johnson, K M, Johnston, W J, Jonas, K, Joy-Gaba, J A, Kappes, H B, Kelso, K, Kidwell, M C, Kim, S K, Kirkhart, M, Kleinberg, B, Knežević, G, Kolorz, F M, Kossakowski, J J, Krause, R W, Krijnen, J, Kuhlmann, T, Kunkels, Y K, Kyc, M M, Lai, C K, Laique, A, Lakens, D, Lane, K A, Lassetter, B, Lazarević, L B, Le Bel, E P, Lee, K J, Lee, M, Lemm, K, Levitan, C A, Lewis, M, Lin, L, Lin, S, Lippold, M, Loureiro, D, Luteijn, I, MacKinnon, S, Mainard, H N, Marigold, D C, Martin, D P, Martinez, T, Masicampo, E J, Matacotta, J, Mathur, M, May, M, Mechin, N, Mehta, P, Meixner, J, Melinger, A, Miller, J K, Miller, M, Moore, K, Möschl, M, Motyl, M, Müller, S M, Munafo, M, Neijenhuijs, K I, Nervi, T, Nicolas, G, Nilsonne, G, Nosek, B A, Nuijten, M B, Olsson, C, Osborne, C, Ostkamp, L, Pavel, M, Penton-Voak, I S, Perna, O, Pernet, C, Perugini, M, Pipitone, R N, Pitts, M, Plessow, F, Prenoveau, J M, Rahal, R M, Ratliff, K A, Reinhard, D, Renkewitz, F, Ricker, A A, Rigney, A, Rivers, A M, Roebke, M, Rutchick, A M, Ryan, R S, Sahin, O, Saide, A, Sandstrom, G M, Santos, D, Saxe, R, Schlegelmilch, R, Schmidt, K, Scholz, S, Seibel, L, Selterman, D F, Shaki, S, Simpson, W B, Sinclair, H C, Skorinko, J L M, Slowik, A, Snyder, J S, Soderberg, C, Sonnleitner, C, Spencer, N, Spies, J R, Steegen, S, Stieger, S, Strohminger, N, Sullivan, G B, Talhelm, T, Tapia, M, Te Dorsthorst, A, Thomae, M, Thomas, S L, Tio, P, Traets, F, Tsang, S, Tuerlinckx, F, Turchan, P, Valášek, M, Van't Veer, A E, Van Aert, R, Van Assen, M, Van Bork, R, Van De Ven, M, Van Den Bergh, D, Van Der Hulst, M, Van Dooren, R, Van Doorn, J, Van Renswoude, D R, Van Rijn, H, Vanpaemel, W, Echeverría, A V, Vazquez, M, Velez, N, Vermue, M, Verschoor, M, Vianello, M, Voracek, M, Vuu, G, Wagenmakers, E J, Weerdmeester, J, Welsh, A, Westgate, E C, Wissink, J, Wood, M, Woods, A, Wright, E, Wu, S, Zeelenberg, M & Zuni, K 2015, 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science', Science, vol. 349, no. 6251, aac4716. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716