Performance of bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients

Abstract

Background: Bleeding risk scores have been created to identify patients with an increased bleeding risk, which could also be useful in dialysis patients. However, the predictive performances of these bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients are unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to validate existing bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients. Methods: A cohort of 1745 incident dialysis patients was prospectively followed for 3 years during which bleeding events were registered. We evaluated the discriminative performance of the Hypertension, Abnormal kidney and liver function, Stroke, Bleeding, Labile INR, Elderly and Drugs or alcohol (HASBLED), the AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA), the Hepatic or kidney disease, Ethanol abuse, Malignancy, Older age, Reduced platelet count or Reduced platelet function, Hypertension, Anaemia, Genetic factors, Excessive fall risk and Stroke (HEMORR2HAGES) and the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment (ORBIT) bleeding risk scores by calculating C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In addition, calibration was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed risks. Results: Of the 1745 dialysis patients, 183 patients had a bleeding event, corresponding to an incidence rate of 5.23/100 person-years. The HASBLED [C-statistic of 0.58 (95% CI 0.54-0.62)], ATRIA [C-statistic of 0.55 (95% CI 0.51-0.60)], HEMORR2HAGES [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] and ORBIT [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] risk scores had poor discriminative performances in dialysis patients. Furthermore, the calibration analyses showed that patients with a low risk of bleeding according to the HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had higher incidence rates for bleeding in our cohort than predicted. Conclusions: The HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had poor predictive abilities in dialysis patients. Therefore, these bleeding risk scores may not be useful in this population.