Assessment of the Long-Term Impact of Climate Variability on Food Production Systems in South Africa (1976–2020)

Abstract

The global impact of climate variability and change on agricultural production systems is a pressing concern with far-reaching implications. While substantial literature exists on these impacts, there is a notable lack of long-term studies that comprehensively analyse the relationship between climate variables and food production systems in South Africa over extended periods. This study addresses this gap by utilising longitudinal data spanning 45 years (1976–2020) and employing an ordinary least squares regression model for analysis. The findings reveal that temperature has a significant positive effect on animal and horticultural production systems. On marginal variability, a 1 °C increase in annual temperature and precipitation levels leads to an increases in animal production (244.2%), field crops (226.4%), and a decrease in horticultural crops (−116.62%). These results underscore the pronounced effects of climate variability on animal, field, and horticultural production systems. This study concludes that rising temperatures positively influence animal and horticultural production. It recommends prioritising climate-smart agricultural practices to enhance resilience and productivity, particularly in colder seasons. By implementing these strategies, South Africa can strengthen its food production systems, ensuring sustainable agricultural growth in the face of climate variability and change.