Assessing transition trajectories towards a sustainable energy system: A case study on the Dutch transition to climate-neutral transport fuel chains

Abstract

This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed: (i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural change, and (ii) a sequence of steps oriented towards incremental innovation on the side of the vehicle. The system is approached from a multi-actor perspective, taking into account the multiplicity of views and interests of actors involved. Based on interviews a quick scan is made in terms of their Willingness to Participate (WTP). We find that on long term goals, a positive WTP and a high degree of consent are the case. For the short term the opposite is found. Management should therefore be directed at facilitating short term innovations: in the case of an incremental strategy, by stimulating market development; and in case of a radical strategy, by providing finance and institutional legitimation.