Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya

Abstract

Pastoral and agro-pastoral communities are amongst the most vulnerable groups in the world to increased drought risk caused by climate change. Risk preferences play a key role in drought adaptation decisions, but little research has been done on risk preferences in (agro-)pastoral communities. This study therefore examines risk attitudes amongst Kenyan (agro-)pastoralists, which can inform the development of effective adaptation policies. A hypothetical multiple price list experiment, framed as farming decisions under drought-risk scenarios, is employed to measure utility curvature and probability weighting. Varying rainfall scenarios are presented to assess changes in risk-taking behaviour if climate change increases the probability of drought. We included three psychological factors and several socioeconomic variables in the analysis to understand variations in risk attitudes between individuals. The respondents are, on average, risk-averse and overweight high probabilities. An increased drought risk due to climate change is expected to amplify risk-averse behaviour. An internal locus of control and high drought-risk perceptions are associated with risk-averse behaviour, whereas receiving emergency drought support is associated with less risk-averse behaviour. Policies promoting anticipatory risk-reducing behaviour could emphasise the effectiveness of individual actions, increase awareness of the problem, and minimise reliance on emergency assistance.