Towards a climate-resilient conservation network in Portugal

Abstract

In response to the European Biodiversity Strategy 2030, Portugal is updating its conservation plans to expand the coverage of existing conservation areas from 22 % to 30 %. This expansion is also required to accommodate biodiversity adaptation needs amid climate change. To this end, we have developed a protocol that employs biological data, species distribution models, and optimization techniques within a systematic conservation planning framework, to guide the expansion of conservation areas while considering the needs of species adaptation under climate change. The protocol formulates scenarios considering three species' conservation targets and two climate scenarios. It identifies potential range retention refugia, where species may continue to persist, and range displacement refugia, where species might be forced to redistribute due to changing climatic conditions. Using terrestrial vertebrates as a test case, two regions emerge as critical for species conservation through the 21st century: the central-western region along the Atlantic coast, projected as future displacement refugia, and the northeastern upland region, serving both as range retention and displacement refugia. Additional smaller areas are identified mainly across mountains and coastal areas of the country. Importantly, existing conservation areas already encompass high concentrations of species in range retention refugia, preserving nearly double the species richness found in non-conserved areas. The proposed approach ensures that conservation expansion is both scientifically sound and effectively contributes to the biodiversity goals of 2030, representing a significant improvement over traditional approaches that rely on bottom-up expert judgment and administrative expediency.