Sustainable resource use in the global water-food-energy nexus: Advances in process-based integrated assessment modelling

Abstract

Most of humanity's basic needs are related to the commodities water, food and energy. Driven by economic development and population growth, the use of water, food and energy has continued to increase rapidly during the past 40 years. However, the increasing extraction of natural resources has damaged the natural environment at unprecedented speed and scale, thereby also threatening the fulfilment of future needs. This problem has spurred a worldwide quest for sustainability, to meet both present and future needs, for example in the form of the global Sustainable Development Goals. In this thesis, we contribute to model-based scenario analyses, exploring possible paths to different futures, based on independently progressing trends and various policy options. We add to an existing body of process-based integrated assessment models, with particular attention for long-term consequences, for inequality among population groups, and for the interconnectedness of water, food and energy. The topic is approached from the demand side and builds on the IMAGE model framework, leading to the following research questions: •How may water and food demand develop in the long-term future? •How are the demand and supply of water, food and energy interrelated? •What does increasing water demand mean for water scarcity? •How do water and food factor into local and global inequalities?